What Seattle’s Crime Rates Look Like Next to Its West Coast Peers

On August 27, I published an article about crime in San Francisco and Seattle. I titled it “Could the San Francisco Miracle Work in Seattle?”

Today, I’ve updated some figures because I switched to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, Table 8, instead of data from individual police departments. (Note my comment near the top of my previous post about the San Francisco miracle.) I also want to provide broader context by reviewing crime in the seven West Coast cities Seattle has historically used as a comparison group for collective bargaining with police unions, given their similar policing environments.

Remember, crime statistics are a snapshot in time and change as additional reported crimes are logged and as police update crime classifications after incident investigations. For example, an aggravated assault may be reclassified as a simple assault, or a motor vehicle theft may be removed from the list of reported crimes because the owner finally found where it had been parked. We also must remember that many crimes are never reported to the police, as the annual crime victimization study shows. But crime statistics do provide a broad context for what’s happening in a city, a context that’s very important to understand.

The chart below presents major crime statistics for the West Coast Seven, plus Seattle, for calendar year 2025. The major violent crimes included are aggravated assault, homicide, rape, and robbery. Major property crimes include burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Arson is omitted here because the FBI excludes it from published property crime totals.

For each city, you will see the population and the rates of reported violent and property crime per 1,000 people. You can compare each city’s rates with the overall average and median for the seven cities; Seattle’s numbers are not included in the seven-city average or median rates. For example, Seattle’s 2025 violent crime rate is 6.99 reported incidents per 1,000 people, compared with the seven-city average of 6.96. I show both an average and a median because Oakland’s violent crime rate is more than double the group’s and pulls the average upward; the median is less affected by a single outlier.

One caution. The FBI, and some criminologists, discourage ranking cities against one another because reporting practices and local conditions vary. I think the comparison is defensible here because this is Seattle’s own chosen peer group, and the crime stats for all eight cities come from the same FBI Table 8. The rates included here control for population size, not for density, economy, or how willing residents are to call the police.

What conclusions can we draw from this analysis?

1. Seattle’s violent crime rate is at the average for the seven cities and is also the third highest of the eight. This is because Oakland sits so far above the rest that only three cities are above the average. But our violent crime rate per 1,000 residents is 43.8% higher than San Francisco’s, the city that has drawn attention for its turnaround under Mayor Daniel Lurie’s leadership.
   
2. Seattle’s property crime rate is 41.4% higher than the seven-city average and 75.4% higher than the median. These are substantial differences.
   
3. Compare each city’s property crime rate to its violent crime rate. Portland reports 7.25 property crimes for every violent one. Seattle reports 6.32. San Francisco reports 6.03. Then the numbers fall off sharply: San Jose 4.72, San Diego 4.14, Long Beach 4.06, Oakland 3.54, and Sacramento 3.14. Portland and Seattle lead the group by a wide margin, with San Francisco close behind.

Compared with these seven cities, Seattle’s violent crime rate ranks third among eight, essentially at the average, close to Portland’s, but significantly higher than San Francisco’s. Our property crime is a different story altogether: 41.4% above the seven-city average, 75.4% above the median, and trailing only Oakland and Portland in absolute terms.

Of course, this analysis is limited to the major crimes that police agencies across the United States report to the FBI. Not included are all drug-related crimes, non-aggravated or simple assault, prostitution, human trafficking, and nuisance crimes, such as disorderly conduct, illegal graffiti, and any crime associated with illegal camping, trash, or public defecation. These crimes aren’t counted in the FBI’s major-crime tables, yet people often see them daily, and they can make an area seem unsafe and in decline.

Next week, I will share further perspective on crime and what we can do to prevent it through a dual strategy that helps people in need while holding those responsible for the greatest harms accountable.